Canaries in the Coal Mine

In a historically close election, what will be the determining factors?

We are less than two weeks away from Election Day and the Presidential race is in a dead heat. Polling averages have converged to even in almost every swing state. Vice President Kamala Harris leads national polling by 2 to 3 points, which may not be enough for a Democratic victory due to the Electoral College.

Polling averages as of October 23rd

If the election reflects the current state of polls, it would result in the closest race of all time. Historically, polls are never that accurate. In 2016 and 2020, we saw polls greatly underestimate Donald Trump. However, the 2012 and 2022 races underrated Democrats' chances. Polling firms have attempted to change their tactics and methodology to correct for the errors in the previous Presidential elections. We won’t know the effectiveness of that until election night.

As we look at the various factors in this race, what are the potential indicators that could tell the story on election night — the canaries in the coal mine?

Result: Kamala Harris Wins

• Favorability Ratings — Although…